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US-Iran talks: Does Green Movement benefit?

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Tehran Bureau - By Muhammad Sahimi - Oct. 15 (News Analysis) - Negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group -- the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany -- began on Thursday, October 1. Iran's negotiating team was led by Saeed Jalili, the hard-line secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council, who is an ally of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.S. team was led by William J. Burns, a career diplomat and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. There is great ongoing debate among Iranians, both in Iran and the Diaspora, on whether these negotiations (1) are helpful to Iran's Green Movement for democracy; (2) should be taking place now, or whether the timing is highly inappropriate; (3) bestow legitimacy upon the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is facing a domestic crisis of legitimacy; (4) will help sustain gross and systematic violations of human rights in Iran. Many Iranians continue to be angry that President Barack Obama and his administration failed to properly condemn in a timely manner the violent crackdown on peaceful demonstrations in the aftermath of the rigged June 12 presidential election. Thousands have been arrested, beaten, tortured, even raped and murdered in detention -- at least 72 people have been confirmed dead. We must first remember that negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the United States are nothing new. In the past 30 years, the two countries have conducted public and secret negotiations, and there have been plenty of contacts between the two sides. Examples include negotiations from 1980-1981 for the release of the American hostages; the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid-1980s; Iran's cooperation with the U.S. during the first Persian Gulf War of 1990-91, and the fall 2001 war in Afghanistan that overthrew the Taliban; and negotiations over the situation in Iraq. So, if the negotiations with the Islamic Republic give it any legitimacy, it is already a fait accompli. In addition, diplomatic isolation of a terrible government does not improve its behavior. To the contrary, isolation backs the government into a corner and often prompts it to commit even more horrible crimes against its citizens. A good example is Zimbabwe. Isolating the government of Robert Mugabe has only worsened the plight of the vast majority of its people. At the same time, the fact is that the hardliners are afraid of the existence of the U.S. embassy in Tehran, not because they believe that the embassy would become another "nest of spies" -- the name given to the embassy by the leftist students who took it over in Tehran in November 1979 -- but because it would lead to much better people-to-people relations that is ultimately not in the hardliners' interests. In the author's opinion, negotiations with the Islamic Republic neither give it, nor take away, any legitimacy from it. The reason is simple. The legitimacy of a government is bestowed upon it by the people who are ruled over by that government, not by any foreign power. That is the true meaning of a sovereign nation. Therefore, if the Ahmadinejad government lacks legitimacy in the eyes of a great majority of the Iranian -- and, indeed, it does -- then, no degree of negotiations with any foreign power, regardless of how powerful the foreign power may be, will give it any degree of legitimacy. It must, of course, be made clear to the Ahmadinejad administration that the world is well aware of the lack of legitimacy of his government at home, and that the world also respects the principle by which a government earns its legitimacy through the votes of its people. Regardless of how any Iranian feels about it, any international organization or foreign power that needs or wants to deal with Iran, must do so through the only government that it has, namely, the Ahmadinejad government. Given Iran's importance, both regionally and globally, and the urgency that the West attaches to negotiations with Iran because of its rapid progress in setting up the complete nuclear fuel cycle, it would be naïve to think or expect that the West would simply put the negotiations on hold until a government that is acceptable to a majority of the Iranians will emerge in Iran. Most importantly, negotiations between Iran and the United States are in the true national interests of both nations. We must recall that the true national interests of any country are those that are independent of the type of political system that rules that nation. This has been recognized by the Iranians. The best evidence for it is that an overwhelming majority of the Iranians would like to see improvements in relations between Iran and the United States. The question then is which group in Iran can best negotiate a long-lasting agreement with the United States, one that would address most, if not all, of the major issues between the two countries? In my view, hardliners are best positioned to negotiate with the United States. To see why, consider the case of China. The United States vehemently opposed the communist revolution in China, which resulted in the overthrow the pro-West government of Gen. Chiang Kai Shek and brought Mao Zedong and his communist comrades to power in 1949. The U.S. cut off its diplomatic relations with mainland China, and recognized instead the renegade government set up by Gen. Chiang in Taiwan, and looked to it as the sole representative of all of China. Richard Nixon, Vice President to President Dwight D. Eisenhower from 1953 - 1961, and the 37th president of the United States from 1969 - 1974, was one of the most virulently anti-communist figures in America in the 20th century. In 1946 he ran on an anti-communism platform to get elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from California's 12th District (in southern California). Once in Congress, he became a member of the House Un-American Activities Committee (HUAC), which mounted a witch hunt of alleged communist sympathizers in the U.S. government. A well known case before HUAC concerned Alger Hiss (1904-1996), a high-ranking State Department official who had been accused of being a communist spy. Nixon showed that Hiss committed perjury in his testimony, and HUAC helped convict him (Hiss served 44 months in jail). In 1950, Nixon ran against Helen Gahagan Douglas, a leftist actress, for a seat on the U.S. Senate, again on an anti-communist, anti-leftist platform, and defeated her. President Eisenhower selected Nixon as his running mate for the 1952 presidential election. Still, once Nixon himself was elected President in 1968, he and his National Security Adviser, Henry M. Kissinger, recognized that re-establishing diplomatic relations with China was in the U.S. national interest. Mao was at odds with the Soviet Union, and hence, China and its long border with the Soviet Union could be used as a counter-weight to the Soviets. Re-establishing relations with a major communist power, especially at the height of the Vietnam War -- a war with another communist regime supported by both China and the Soviet Union no less -- was simply too big a taboo for any Democrat to break. Cuba had fallen to the communists in 1959 and Latin America was in the midst of many communist insurgencies. Only President Nixon, with his long and "impeccable" track record of anti-communism, had the credibility and authority to reestablish ties with China. In 1972, from February 21-28, he went to China and met with Mao, Prime Minister Zhou Enlai, and other communist leaders. He toasted Mao in the official State dinner in his honor, the same Mao whom Nixon had accused many times of killing millions of Chinese people! No one could really attack Nixon for being "soft" on communists. Likewise, for the past 30 years, Iran's hardliners have vehemently opposed the U.S. Anyone who has advocated better relations with the U.S. has been savagely attacked by the hardliners and labeled "soft," or worse, "a U.S. agent." Given these circumstances, only the hardliners have the "credibility" to negotiate with the United States. If the negotiations lead to improvements in bilateral relations, it would be in the true national interests of both nations, and indeed the entire Middle East. Even if Iran's reformist-democratic groups came to power today, they would not be able to carry out negotiations with the U.S., simply because they would be blocked by the hardliners. At the same time, the leaders of the Green Movement -- Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri -- have made it clear that they support negotiations with the United States. On the other hand, if the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved or lessened, then the hardliners will no longer be able to label the democratic groups as the lackeys of the U.S., nor can U.S. sanctions and threats be used as excuses for repressing and oppressing the Iranian people. That will benefit Iran's democratic movement. Has the time for negotiations really arrived? Aside from the fact that the U.S. and its allies urgently want to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program (and, thus, the negotiations cannot be postponed any longer), the current state of affairs between the two nations, namely, neither war nor peace, is no longer sustainable. One way or another, all the issues between the two nations must be put on the table and negotiated. Negotiations will have a chance for success only if all the issues are on the table. Both the Iranian and American people should demand that negotiations be completely transparent. There should be no secret agreements between the two governments that would hurt the long-term interests of the people of Iran, as well as the American people. Chief among the interests of the Iranian people is respect for human rights, a universal value. Libya is a good example to steer away from. For years, the United States accused the Libyan government of grossly violating the human rights of the Libyan people. But as soon as Libya's dictator, Muammar al-Qaddafi, agreed on Dec. 19, 2003, to give up Libya's ambitions for a nuclear program and nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies stopped raising Qaddafi's gross violations of human rights of the Libyan people. Qaddafi's sins have been forgiven! Iran has signed many international agreements on human rights, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). The agreements are binding and the government of the hardliners must be held accountable for their obligations under this and all relevant international laws. The Ahmadinejad government must be reminded that it cannot argue that the relevant international agreements have given Iran rights to a complete nuclear fuel cycle, while neglecting its obligations under another international agreement that it has signed, namely, the ICCPR. Some Iranians in the Diaspora, particularly among the monarchists, have advocated imposing economic sanctions on Iran. Not only are sanctions against international law (unless approved by the United Nations Security Council), but they would only hurt ordinary Iranians. The best examples of ineffectiveness of sanctions are illustrated by the plight of the people of Iraq, Libya, and Cuba. Sanctions did not overthrow the regimes of Saddam Hussein, Qaddafi, and Fidel Castro, but only worsened the lives of ordinary people who lived in these countries. In addition, at least 500,000 Iraqi children died as a result of these sanctions in the 1990s. The United States has already imposed some of the toughest sanctions on Iran. Due to its importance and oil wealth, Iran has proven to be very resilient against the sanctions. But, at the same time, U.S. sanctions have been used as an excuse by the hardliners to justify their mismanagement of the economy. This is one reason, in addition to hurting the lives of ordinary Iranians, as to why leaders of Iran's Green Movement are vehemently opposed to the imposition of any sanctions. Imposition of sanctions on Iran will, in fact, benefit the hardliners. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) already controls a very significant portion of Iran's economy. Imposing sanctions will only tighten the IRGC's grip on Iran's economy by enabling them to control the import of needed materials and products by going around sanctions. Needless to say, more economic power means more political power for the IRGC. The progressives must also recognize that the resolution of the problems between Iran and the United States is not separate from the resolution of several other conflicts in the Middle East, including the Israel-Palestinian issue, Israel's repeated attacks on southern Lebanon, Israel's refusal to give up the Golan Heights and return it to their rightful owners, Syria (Iran's strategic ally in the region), and the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. So unless the Obama administration takes meaningful steps toward the just settlement of these conflicts, the resolution of the problems between Iran and the United States will remain out of reach. One would hope that now that President Obama has been awarded the 2009 Nobel Prize for Peace based on the promise of his presidency (rather than actual concrete achievements), the Prize will induce him and his administration to take the fateful and courageous steps necessary to move the Middle East toward a true, just, and honorable peace for all the people and nations of that region, including Iran and Iranians. The author remains skeptical. These lofty goals will not be achieved unless the United States changes its views about the Middle East and stops acting as an imperial power that must control everything, energy resources in particular. How likely is that to happen? Not likely at all!

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Mapping out refugees and asylum seekers worldwide

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Worldfocus - Oct. 14 (News Report) - In our show tonight, we take a look at Indonesia, where hundreds of Sri Lankan asylum seekers who fled the violence back home are now threatening to blow themselves up. We also explore how police have mounted operations to wipe out makeshift camps around Calais in northern France. Hamish MacDonald reports on the predominantly Afghan [...]

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Jamal Dajani: Settlement Freeze: Been There, Done That

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Huffington Post - By Jamal Dajani - Aug. 28 (News Analysis) - UN resolutions, the Oslo Agreement, and negotiations over Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian territories occupied in 1967 have all been replaced by buzzwords, such as, "settlement freeze" and "confidence-building measures." Israel's Prime Minister

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Flushing Blackwater

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

The Nation - By Jeremy Scahill - Aug. 26 (Investigative Report) - Blackwater, the private mercenary company owned by Erik Prince, has been thrust back into the spotlight by a series of stunning revelations about its role in covert US programs. Since at least 2002, Blackwater has worked for the CIA in Afghanistan and Pakistan on "black" contracts. On August 19, the New York Times revealed that the company was, in fact, a central part of a secret CIA assassination program that Dick Cheney allegedly ordered concealed from Congress. The paper then reported that Blackwater remains a key player in the widening air war in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where it arms drone aircraft. These disclosures follow allegations--made under oath by former Blackwater employees--that Prince murdered or facilitated the murder of potential government informants and that he "views himself as a Christian crusader tasked with eliminating Muslims and the Islamic faith from the globe."

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Reading the messages behind Afghan election posters

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Worldfocus - By Scott Bohlinger - Aug. 19 (News Analysis) - Scott Bohlinger is a political analyst and writer who has lived in Afghanistan since 2006. He works for a non-governmental organization in Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan and has traveled extensively in the Middle East. In the run-up to this Thursday’s elections in Afghanistan, I've noticed a menagerie of political artwork and iconography. Every surface is increasingly plastered [...]

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Iraq: Talk is Cheap, Blood is Cheaper

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Link TV - By Jamal Dajani - Aug. 18 (News Analysis) - It is now apparent that the Iraqi insurgency has adapted to what the U.S. and Iraqi forces have been throwing at it. When the surge was in full swing in and around Baghdad, the Iraqi insurgency retreated, but since June 30, when U.S. troops in Iraq withdrew from urban centers, some insurgents moved right back in, while others shifted their attention to the Iraqi north. A cat and mouse game.

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Jamal Dajani: Iraq: Talk is Cheap, Blood is Cheaper

Fri, 14 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Huffington Post - By Jamal Dajani - Aug. 14 (News Analysis) - It was not long ago that the "surge" in Iraq was cause for praise and a measure of success during the U.S. presidential race. Some in the U.S. Congress have even argued that the "surge" is a recipe that could be exported to Afghanistan to defeat the

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What's new in Af-Pak? History you haven't read

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

GlobalPost - By Anthony Paul - Aug. 07 (Special Report) - The more things change on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the more they seem to stay the same ? the same as in the 1870s. The latest news from Waziristan ? the reputed death by U.S. drone strike of Baitullah Mehsud, West Asia?s Public Enemy No. 2 ? doesn?t generate as much optimism as, perhaps, it should. Those Anglo-Saxons active earlier in the region, British colonial forces, killed many Mehsuds over the years, but without, it seems, changing all that much. read more

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Jamal Dajani: Yemen: A Powder Keg Ready to Explode

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Huffington Post - By Jamal Dajani - Aug. 07 (News Analysis) - With the recent obsession about the Iranian "Velvet Revolution", the ongoing coverage of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, news from a country like Yemen seldom makes headlines in Western media, especially in the

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Iran election: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeals to protesters, closes detention centre

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Vancouver Sun - By Parisa Hafezi, Zahra Hosseinian - Jul. 28 (News Report) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered the closing of Kahrizak detention centre where some detainees are believed to have been held since Iran's disputed presidential election. Khamenei's order is seen as a move to calm the growing discontent among leading moderates and their supporters, particularly when the clerical establishment faces disputes among its hardline supporters over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's appointment of his first vice-president.

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Sarkozy Hiding Behind the Burqa

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Huffington Post - By Jamal Dajani - Jul. 10 (News Report) - PARIS- It's been almost three weeks since French President Nicolas Sarkozy said burqas imprison women and would not be tolerated in France. In a speech at the Palace of Versailles, Mr. Sarkozy said that the head-to-toe Islamic garment for women, the burqa, "is not a sign of religion", but rather "a sign of subservience."

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Lieberman being sidelined as foreign minister

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Jewish Telegraphic Agency - By Leslie Susser - Jul. 07 (News) - If Avigdor Lieberman's appointment as foreign minister seemed odd when it was made, recent developments cast more doubt over his capacity to function as Israel's top diplomat.

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Selling Confidence in Iraq

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Huffington Post - By Jamal Dajani - Jul. 01 (News Analysis) - As Iraqi forces took control of towns and cities across the country on June 30, a car bomb in the northern city of Kirkuk exploded, killing at least 33 people and injuring more than 100, serving as a grim reminder of the security challenges that Iraqis face following US troop pullout. Kirkuk was also the scene of two suicide bombings last month in which 14 people were killed. It is the center of northern Iraq's oil industry and home to a volatile mix of Kurds, Arabs, Christians and members of the Turkmen community.

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Iran: Protesters break a taboo and defy Khamenei

Sat, 20 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Global Voices - By Hamid Tehrani - Jun. 20 (Special Report) - One day after Islamic Republic Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced protests and warned reformist leaders against taking to the streets, thousands of people demonstrated in Tehran. They were joined by others in several cities across Iran in ignoring Khamenei's order and voicing their anger against the June 12 presidential election results. They clashed with Iranian police who used tear gas and water cannons to disperse them.

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Iran Faces Greater Risks than it Knows

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Middle East Online - By Paul Craig Roberts - Jun. 18 (News Analysis) - Ideological and emotional agendas result in people distancing themselves from factual and analytical information, preferring instead information that fits with their material interests and emotional disposition. The primacy of emotion over fact bids ill for the future. The extraordinary attention given to the Iranian election suggests that many American interests and emotions have a stake in the outcome.

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Time to go: ABC thrown out of Iran

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Australian Broadcasting - By Ben Knight - Jun. 17 (Special Report) - Middle East correspondent Ben Knight is leaving Iran after journalists were ordered out of the country and told not to report on unauthorised gatherings. Here he describes how it is getting harder to get information out of Iran about the protests.

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Iran Protests

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Link TV - Jun. 16 (News Report) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is under increasing international pressure over the disputed results of Friday's election.

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Mapping the Arabic Blogosphere: Politics, Culture and Dissent

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Berkman Center - Jun. 16 (Poll) - We conducted a study of the Arabic language blogosphere using link analysis, term frequency analysis, and human coding of individual blogs. We identified a base network of approximately 35,000 active blogs, created a network map of the 6,000 most connected blogs, and with a team of Arabic speakers hand coded 4,000 blogs. The goal for the study was to produce a baseline assessment of the networked public sphere in the Arab Middle East, and its relationship to a range of emergent issues, including politics, media, religion, culture, and international affairs.

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Iran’s Power Struggle

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Tehran Bureau - By Gareth Smyth - Jun. 16 (News Analysis) - As he surveys the aftermath of the rioting in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be assessing the crisis he faces. Referring the complaints from defeated presidential candidates for a ten-day enquiry — just 48 hours after detecting a divine hand in the result — may stymie protests and gain time.

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Politics Done Right: Iran Does Have Some Fishy Numbers

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

FiveThirtyEight - By Renard Sexton - Jun. 15 (Investigative Report) - Again, as we have mentioned on several occasions, the numbers still do not prove any wrongdoing, as large scale changes in public opinion do happen regularly around the world. However, given the polling data in the run-up to the balloting, and the historical trend away from electoral domination in the first round by one candidate, this very fishy regional data tends to strongly support that which the canceled Mousavi protest was meant to express.

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Saudi Arabia: A Player in Middle East Elections

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Link TV - Jun. 13 (News Analysis) - Saudi Arabia shifts its focus from Lebanon to Iran. Mousavi finds support from Saudi-run media outlets. Will the monarchy influence these elections too?

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Iranian Election: Media Matters

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Link TV - Jun. 13 (News Analysis) - State TV gave President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad more airtime but Mir Hossein Mousavi was the favorite of the Internet. How the Iranian media covered the historic presidential election.

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Isfahan and the Vote

Fri, 12 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Tehran Bureau - By Amir Momeni - Jun. 12 (Special Report) - as the election draws near, the city has never felt so eclectic or gripped with so much excitement. Everywhere I go people are talking about the election, everyone is passionately campaigning on behalf of his or her candidate, and at nightfall the city turns into a massive political arena with supporters marching, chanting, singing, dancing and occasionally fighting.

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Iran votes in record-breaking numbers

Fri, 12 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

GlobalPost - By Cameron Abadi - Jun. 12 (Special Report) - ord-breaking numbers of Iranians going to the polls Friday, this year’s presidential election has already earned a chapter in the story of the Islamic Republic. What remains to be seen is in which direction the voters will have steered the plot.

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Pakistani Editorialists Respond to Obama

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0700

Informed Comment - Jun. 07 (News Report) - The USG Open Source Center translates Pakistani editorials from the Urdu press reacting to President Obama's address in Cairo to the Muslim world.

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