The scars of Iraq's painful bloodletting are deep, and a powerful disincentive against a return to open warfare. But Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is moving against Sunni Arabs, his political enemies.
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It seems to me that the question of civil war in Iraq is not IF but WHEN? Based on events that have already happen it would appear that the answer to when is VERY SOON.
...a predictable scenario that nobody really wanted.