Historically, surprise attacks are not really a surprise. There are generally precursors that were simply unrecognized at the time. A statement by the outgoing head of the fleet that would would be involved in an attack on Iran that the doubling of offensive and defensive capabiliites in the form of a second carrier is “not necessarily a precursor to offensive actions” is the kind of comment that betrays an impending attack. The story is a decent one, not headed for the inbox at the Pulitzer judges' desk. Yet it may be far more important than one that gets the prize later. In time we will see how important that statement was, and whether the reporter should have placed it higher in the story, or even have led with it. "Not necessarily" has an ominous ring to it -- a "better than 50 percent" sound.