Network - Does U.S. poll rule out fraud in Iran?

Western media, along with thousands of Iranians protesting around the world, have formed a rough consensus over the six days since Iran's Presidential Election that Ahmadinejad's victory was the result of widespread fraud. However, a recent Op-Ed in the Washington Post references a rare public opinion poll in suggesting that the election may indeed have been fair. While there is not enough information to determine whether or not the election was rigged, ... Full Story »

Posted by Lewyn Li

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4.0
by Lewyn Li - Jun. 19, 2009

This short report points out how the original report of a poll, which was later used by Ballen and Doherty in an often cited Washington Post OpEd, explicitly states that "The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold needed to automatically win; meaning that a second round runoff between the two highest finishers, as things stand, Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Moussavi, is likely." I checked the original poll report myself and confirmed that this was indeed stated in the report. So this would seem to be a case of poll numbers being manipulated and re-interpreted after the fact. Question: for what purposes? The alleged links to right-wing conservatives in the US are suggestive, but tentative at best.

The Washington Post OpEd by Ballen and Doherty has received seven reviews at NewsTrust and was rated quite highly (3.7 out of 5). As far as I can tell, none of the reviews alludes to this apparent contradictions among the poll numbers, the original conclusions of the poll report, and the re-interpretation after the fact.

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