The Iranian People Speak

The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election. Full Story »

Posted by Kaizar Campwala
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Subjects: World, U.S.
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Posted by: Posted by Kaizar Campwala - Jun 15, 2009 - 7:38 AM PDT
Content Type: Article
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Edited by: Fabrice Florin - Jun 15, 2009 - 9:56 AM PDT

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Reviews

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2.7
by Joey Baker - Jun. 15, 2009

The story itself is fine, but the survey it refers to is faulty. It's method was fine, but the percentages are misleading. See http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/did-polling-predict-ahmadinejad-victory.html

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3.6
by Derek Hawkins - Jun. 15, 2009

A shot of skepticism for anyone honestly following the election controversy in Iran. Reasonable, factual, but I think the authors are too confident in their results. The poll was conducted too early and leaves too many unaccounted for to be completely credible.

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3.9
by Kaizar Campwala - Jun. 15, 2009

Fascinating poll results that suggest the outcome of the Iranian is not fraudulent, as many in the west are suggesting.

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3.8
by Fabrice Florin - Jun. 15, 2009

Interesting analysis from independent U.S. researchers, whose findings suggest that Ahmadinejad was leading opinion polls by a more than 2 to 1 margin a month ago. The authors base their comments on factual results of their preelection surveys, which shed new light on Iranian attitudes towards their country and its leaders. Food for thought.

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4.3
by Joel Kulenkamp - Jun. 15, 2009

Not too bad, but a bit of an opinion piece (NB Mr. Ballen's credentials as president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion).

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4.0
by Dwight Rousu - Jun. 20, 2009

The polling data provide a credible basis for disbelief of fraud charges, which seem to be wishfully accepted by mainstream media. While not conclusive, it is good information for including in the mix of facts and opinions about events in Iran.

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3.4
by Dan Kennedy - Jun. 15, 2009

Ballen and Doherty make some important points. But poll analyst extraordinaire Nate Silver has noted some flaws in their commentary, and I have added Silver's views to the Links.

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4.1
by Naomi Isler - Jun. 15, 2009

This report assumes that the polling organization is competent and politically neutral. Apparently it is. So maybe what the West needs is some indication that wishful thinking doesn't influence the Iranian electorate. After all, several Western countries have, over time, voted in governments which were popular nationally, but not in the rest of the world.

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Links Help

  • About Those Iran Polls - Behind the Numbers

    Public opinion surveys are central to the Iranian opposition's argument that the elections there were rigged for incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: they cite unspecified ...
    Posted by Derek Hawkins
    4.0
  • Polling Predicted Intimidation -- and Not Necessarily Ahmadinejad's Victory (Pending)

    Posted by Chris Finnie
  • What If Ahmadinejad Really Won?

    a strong case can be made that the large turnout, which was estimated at about 85 percent, was the key to a genuine landslide for Ahmadinejad, who is viewed as a friend of ...
    Posted by Dwight Rousu
    4.0
  • Network - Does U.S. poll rule out fraud in Iran?

    Western media, along with thousands of Iranians protesting around the world, have formed a rough consensus over the six days since Iran's Presidential Election that ...
    Posted by Lewyn Li
    4.0