5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House

New York Times, FiveThirtyEight by Nate Silver | Nov. 2, 2010 (Opinion)

(Blog Post) While our forecast and a good deal of polling data suggest that the Republicans may win the House of Representatives on Tuesday, perhaps all is not lost for the Democrats. Here’s one possible scenario for how things might not end up as expected. Full Story »

Posted by Jon Mitchell - via Memeorandum, FiveThirtyEight, Wil Kristin (t), John Rueschenberg (t), Moises Figueroa (t), David K. Miller (t), Shakthi Sivanathan (t), Steve Murray (t), Tshiung Han See (t), Ray Nichols (t), Salvador Sala (t), David Wardell (t), Thanh Tran (t), Malorie Jae Lucich (t), Ish Harshawat (t), JR Russ (t)

More Info

Tags Help
Subjects: U.S., Politics, Business
Topics: U.S. Congress, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Democrats, Republicans, Midterm Elections, Telecommunications, Race
Member Tags: uncategorized
Stats Help
# Diggs: 2 (as of 2010-11-04)
Editorial Help
Posted by: Posted by Jon Mitchell - Nov 1, 2010 - 6:26 PM PDT
Reviewed by: Jon Mitchell (review), Barry Grossheim (review), Frank Whitman (review), Douglas Hord (review)
Content Type: Blog Post
Edit Lock: This story can be edited
Edited by: Jon Mitchell - Nov 2, 2010 - 10:36 AM PDT

Reviews

Show All Comments
Show All | Notes | Comments | Quotes | Links
Jon Mitchell
4.1
 by Jon Mitchell - Nov. 2, 2010

I think Nate Silver has consistently written the best analytical columns of the last month leading up to the elections, and he has saved the best for last. He has been predicting Republican victories by carefully reading the poll numbers, but here, he has provided several clear, believable reasons why things might not turn out as expected.

Jon posted this story.
See Full Review » (11 answers)
Douglas Hord
4.6
 by Douglas Hord - Nov. 2, 2010
See Full Review » (3 answers)
Barry Grossheim
4.0
 by Barry Grossheim - Nov. 2, 2010

Some comfort to hang onto before the election results start coming in tonight. He lays out reasonable scenarios to show why Republicans might not do as well as expected.

See Full Review » (6 answers)
Frank Whitman
4.1
 by Frank Whitman - Nov. 2, 2010

YOU CAN'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU HEAR OR READ,BUT SINCE THE REPUBLICAN HAVE THE MOST MONEY THEY ARE MORE AVAILIBLE FOR POLLS INTERVEIWS ETC,WHERE US BROKE DEMOCRAT'S STAY HOME

See Full Review » (4 answers)

Comments on this story (1)Help (BETA)

Sort by: Oldest | Newest Hide All Replies
NT Rating | My Rating

Ratings

4.1

Good
from 4 reviews (53% confidence)
Quality
4.2
Information
4.3
Insight
4.3
Style
4.0
Context
4.0
Expertise
4.0
Originality
4.0
Relevance
4.0
Responsibility
4.0
Popularity
3.9
Recommendation
4.5
Credibility
4.0
# Reviews
2.0
# Views
5.0
# Likes
1.0
# Emails
1.0
More
How our ratings work »
(See these related stories.)

Links Help

  • The Cook Report Issues Final Forecast: GOP Gains 50 to 60 Seats in the House

    The Cook Political Report, National Journal | Nov. 1, 2010 (Editorial)
    In its final forecast for the election cycle, The Cook Political Report expects a gain for Republicans of 50 to 60 seats in the House, with six to eight seats in the Senate. ...
    Posted by Jon Mitchell
    3.0
     See Reviews »

  • A Little Lady Predicts a Big Win

    Wall Street Journal by Peggy Noonan | Oct. 30, 2010 (Opinion)
    Well, I think we know where this one's going. The polls came like waves this week. Independents breaking hard for the GOP, those making under $50,000 going Republican, the ...
    Posted by Jon Mitchell
    3.0
     See Reviews »

  • Morning Jay: Special “Ultimate Predictions” Edition!

    Weekly Standard by Jay Cost | Nov. 2, 2010 (Opinion)
    I have to say that I am of two minds about this midterm election. On the one hand, it is great to see the Republican party in resurgence. And not just in terms of raw ...
    Posted by Jon Mitchell
    3.6
     See Reviews »
    • Add a related link