Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed ... Full Story »

Posted by Kaizar Campwala
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Posted by: Posted by Kaizar Campwala - Nov 4, 2008 - 10:29 AM PST
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Edited by: Fabrice Florin - Nov 4, 2008 - 11:14 AM PST

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3.7
by Fabrice Florin - Nov. 4, 2008

Words of wisdom from Nate Silver, a rising star in the polling word, based on pollster Mark Bluemthal's Exit Poll FAQ (see related link). The authors provide important information about exit polls, with helpful recommendations to hold off judgment until the real results come in. A very useful reminder in this heated election.

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3.6
by Chris Finnie - Nov. 4, 2008

If only we could ignore all polls. I'm sick of all of them!

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4.0
by Naomi Isler - Nov. 4, 2008

It seems to give some good arguments about why this type of polling is inherently inaccurate. It omits one - people lie!

Actually it squares with my personal experience - if exit polls were reliable, at least one major mayoral contest would have had a different ... More »

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