Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Gallup by Jeffrey M. Jones, Frank Newport, Lydia Saad | Nov. 3, 2008 (Poll)

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight ... Full Story »

Posted by Leo Romero

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3.6
 by Fabrice Florin - Nov. 3, 2008

Informative report from one of the most trusted polling agencies in this field. It's worth noting that this final estimate is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004 ( fueled by a surge in early voting and higher turnout among blacks). If you pull out undecided voters the poll data shows a 53% to 42% margin for Obama.

(11 answers)

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