Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Gallup by Jeffrey M. Jones, Frank Newport, Lydia Saad | Nov. 3, 2008 (Poll)

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight ... Full Story »

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4.3
 by Michael Bugeja - Nov. 3, 2008

This is perhaps the most important empirical poll on the eve of the most important polling day, and indicators show an easy win for Obama. Then again, there are variables that we are encountering only in this election, such as use of cell phones (omitting a key demographic for Obama) as well as voter overconfidence (which Obama has been fighting). While early voting has gone in favor of the Democrats, too much publicity about an easy Obama win may keep remaining voters at home, and that plays to McCain's favor.

I called elections in the 1970s for United Press International. Nothing is as stressful as that. In 1978 there was overconfidence by Democrats in South Dakota as Republican Leo Thorsness (a Medal of Honor winner and six-year Vietnam POW) surprised voters in the final days against favored Tom Daschle. Thorsness won by 75 votes, and I called that a draw. Daschle won on recount, launching his Senate career where he eventually became majority leader.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

The voters with landlines and cell phones are omitted from the survey.

(22 answers)

Michael's Rating

Overall
4.3

Good
from 22 answers
Quality
4.3
Facts
5.0
Fairness
5.0
Information
5.0
Insight
5.0
Sourcing
5.0
Style
4.0
Accuracy
4.0
Balance
4.0
Context
4.0
Depth
4.0
Enterprise
3.0
Expertise
2.0
Originality
4.0
Relevance
5.0
Transparency
4.0
Responsibility
4.0
Popularity
4.5
Recommendation
4.0
Credibility
5.0
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