Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight ... Full Story »

Posted by Leo Romero
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Posted by: Posted by Leo Romero - Nov 2, 2008 - 8:45 PM PST
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Edited by: Leo Romero - Nov 2, 2008 - 8:45 PM PST

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3.6
by Fabrice Florin - Nov. 3, 2008

Informative report from one of the most trusted polling agencies in this field. It's worth noting that this final estimate is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004 ( fueled by a surge in early voting and higher turnout among blacks). If you pull out undecided voters the poll data shows a 53% to 42% margin for Obama.

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3.2
by Dwight Rousu - Nov. 3, 2008

It is notable that they say a little about their polling via telephones and cellphones. The surveys are useful, as they help quantify the degree of fraudulent vote counting.

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4.3
by Michael Bugeja - Nov. 3, 2008

This is perhaps the most important empirical poll on the eve of the most important polling day, and indicators show an easy win for Obama. Then again, there are variables that we are encountering only in this election, such as use of cell phones (omitting a key demographic for Obama) as well as voter overconfidence (which Obama has been fighting). While early voting has gone in favor of the Democrats, too much publicity about an easy Obama win may keep remaining voters at home, and ... More »

I called elections in the 1970s for United Press International. Nothing is as stressful as that. In 1978 there was overconfidence by Democrats in ... More »

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only). More »

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3.6
by Jim Lang - Nov. 3, 2008

This is straight forward reporting of polling data embellished with lots of analsis and opinions that are not so straight forward. There is certainly no humility is this Gallup writeup.

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4.3
by Mike LaBonte - Nov. 3, 2008

This poll is well documented and has good analysis.

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4.1
by Fred Gatlin - Nov. 3, 2008

This is an excellent discussion of polling results. It explains the three polls Gallup have used through the campaign and how they are different. Most important is the results come together at the end of the campaign.

Tomorrow we will learn how accurate all the polls were.

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3.0
by Leo Romero - Nov. 2, 2008
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3.8
by Derek Hawkins - Nov. 3, 2008
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3.9
by David Fox - Nov. 3, 2008
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4.0
by Randy Dutton - Nov. 3, 2008

But will Obama's statement on his policy to bankrupt the US coal industry gain traction in the next 24 hours such that it affects the election? ... More »

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